Frequently Asked Questions - Facilities Planning Task Force 2026

Do you know why enrollment is declining? 

Birth rates across the country, including in Washington state and Bellingham, are declining, and we know from historic data that the number of births in Bellingham drives enrollment.  

For at least 30 years, about 80% of the number of babies born in Bellingham enroll in Bellingham Public Schools. This rate is consistent over the years (with the exception of the pandemic in 2020 when BPS saw a dip in enrollment, like districts across the state and country).  

Birth rate is a clear predictor of BPS enrollment in school five years later, despite fluctuations of students moving in or out of our area or those opting for other options like private school or homeschool. 

Why is the district contemplating reducing the number of elementary schools? 

Projections for the next 5-10 years show a steady decline in elementary enrollment. Between 2018 and 2028, we are expecting to see a decline in 1,000 students across our elementary schools.  

Where do you get your data?  

Projections and estimates for future enrollment are based on city development (permitting and construction plans in the city limits), housing numbers, the number of births in Bellingham based on census data and the Department of Health, and enrollment numbers in our district.  

Bellingham Public Schools regularly works with demographers to analyze birth, development, and enrollment data to help provide projections on enrollment. In addition, we have contracted FLO Analytics for more detailed projections and estimates. FLO is a company based in Oregon and they work with districts across the country, including many in Washington state and the Pacific Northwest.  

What if the projections are wrong? 

The task force has been charged with developing a recommendation for the district that would account for fluctuations. For example, if the task force recommends repurposing a school site, the district would not be inclined to sell the building or land for any of our current elementary schools in case enrollment increases.  The district could rent, lease or repurpose the building. This gives the district flexibility for any potential growth in the future should other factors affect the accuracy of the projections.  

Demographers recommend data should be checked at least annually, and that they feel more confident about their estimates for the next one to five years (2026-27 to 2031-2032) because those numbers are based on verified births in Bellingham.  

Do you know what schools could get repurposed? What is the proposed timeline?  

The facilities planning task force is working on scenarios that could possibly reduce the number of elementary schools and will also recommend next steps for the district to consider.  

The task force will likely complete its work in spring 2026, resulting in a recommendation to the superintendent. The recommendation may include an implementation timeline, which is expected to affect our community starting in fall 2026 or fall 2027.     

Did the 2022 bond include funding to design or build any elementary schools? 

The 2022 bond included funds to build a 15th elementary school in the King Mountain neighborhood as well as funds to start the design/ planning process for Carl Cozier, Roosevelt and Columbia elementary schools. Those three schools are some of the oldest in the district and were identified to be rebuilt.  

In 2024, the district announced that it was pausing plans to build a 15th elementary school and that it would be focusing on relocating and rebuilding Carl Cozier. The Carl Cozier project requires collaboration with the city, including buying/selling land within the Civic complex.  

In March 2026, the district announced to the Carl Cozier community that given the declining birth rates and enrollment, we are pausing conversations with the city while the task force digs into its work. 

Plans for the bond funds originally slated for elementary 15 and then for Carl Cozier will be announced once we have completed the facilities planning process. 

Can we adjust our district boundaries to catch more students? I see that part of Bellingham city limits are within Meridian School District.  

Changing boundaries for a school district is a complex process and an unlikely course of action.  

Changes to school district boundaries happen via the transfer of territory by petition, consolidation of districts or dissolution/annexation of district(s). The change would need to be approved by a vote of citizens of both affected school districts. You can see more information at the state’s website.  

What does the district consider “too low” in terms of enrollment or capacity for a school to remain viable?  

We generally use an elementary school with about 350 students as our standard for a couple of key reasons. Our newest elementary schools have been built to a standard that can accommodate about 400 students—this is about 24-25 classrooms, which allows for three sections of each grade level plus ample space for preschool, spaces for individual or small group instruction, and collaboration spaces for staff. Another reason is the three-section school concept itself—there are benefits to having at least three classrooms of each elementary grade level. For example, having more students at each grade level increases teachers' ability to collaborate and to have flexible instructional or social grouping. 

If a school were to close or be taken offline, which schools would receive those students, and would they have space and staffing?  

The task force is creating and assessing scenarios right now. If a school were to close, the task force would recommend attendance area (boundary) adjustments and determine what the receiving schools would be. The task force is looking at all our elementary schools’ square footage, number of classrooms, current enrollment and projected enrollment. (See slide 15.)